My daughter’s best friend, V, is Angolan.

Our family is Chinese Singaporean. We’ve lived here for most of our lives. And yet the person my two-year-old talks about the most — what they did in school and at the playground, which Disney princesses they are, which toys they fought over — is V.

They’re pre-nursery classmates as well as neighbours, which helps explain the closeness of the friendship. My daughter doesn’t speak a word of Portuguese, V’s native language, but they get along just fine in English with a bit of Mandarin — the lingua franca of the sandpit, if you will.

At their age, perhaps it’s premature to call this “communicating well.” But they have something more elemental: they share a common world and an open mind, and from that proximity a bond has grown without any of the anxieties adults attach to the differences that might exist between them.

Singapore has always needed immigrants. What has changed is the urgency. The maths of an ageing society has made immigration unavoidable. And the question Singapore now faces is: how to create the conditions in which newcomers do not merely arrive, but belong.

The Population Cliff

Singapore’s preliminary resident total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years — fell to a historic low of 0.87 in 2025, sharply down from 0.97 the year before.

Put simply, if current birth patterns hold, the average Singaporean woman would have fewer than one child in her lifetime. This is a problem. A TFR of 2.1 is generally needed for a population to sustain itself without immigration.

The implications are no longer abstract. In April, the Ministry of Education announced that it would gradually reduce Primary 1 intake for most primary schools owing to shrinking cohort sizes. The demographic contraction is happening in real time.

Without new measures, Singapore’s citizen population may start to drop as soon as the early 2040s, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong. Speaking in Parliament in February, he illustrated the scale of the decline starkly: if Singapore’s TFR remains at 0.87, every 100 residents today would have just 44 children, and a mere 19 grandchildren. That’s if the TFR doesn’t get worse.

READ MORE: Is It About Foreigners or Fairness?

A sustained collapse in fertility reshapes the entire structure of a society. A smaller working-age population must support a rapidly growing cohort of seniors. Economic and income growth slow in tandem. Healthcare and social spending must rise. The tax base narrows. National service becomes harder to sustain. As DPM Gan put it: “This raises the deeper question of what Singapore will be 50 or 100 years from now — will we remain vibrant, liveable and relevant? Will we exist?”

Will there be an SG100?

“And the question Singapore now faces is: how to create the conditions in which newcomers do not merely arrive, but belong.”

Immigration Is No Longer Optional

A society-wide reset is needed if Singapore is to change its trajectory — re-examining how marriage and parenthood are viewed and supported, and how workplaces can better align work and family. Even then, there is little indication that fertility rates can be restored or reversed once they fall into ultra-low territory. Across much of East Asia, governments have spent years introducing incentives, subsidies and family-friendly policies with limited success. For us, stopping or even slowing the TFR decline would already be a plus.

Singapore’s push into artificial intelligence and automation is, in part, a response to this arithmetic. When there are fewer workers, each worker must produce more, faster. But technology alone cannot solve a population crisis. Immigration is therefore needed.

Depending on demographic trends, the Government expects to grant 25,000 to 30,000 new citizenships annually over the next five years — 17 to 41 per cent more than the average of 21,300 granted annually between 2020 and 2024. The number of permanent residents will also rise, from an average of 33,000 a year to about 40,000.

The government’s direction is clear, and correct. The question is no longer whether to bring people in, but who to choose.

“A society-wide reset is needed if Singapore is to change its trajectory — re-examining how marriage and parenthood are viewed and supported, and how workplaces can better align work and family.”

The Belonging Problem

Concerns about the growing number of foreigners came to the fore during recent elections and the pandemic. As Dr Tan Ern Ser, Institute of Policy Studies’ Social Lab’s adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser observed, some Singaporeans feel that actual and perceived competition for jobs and amenities has turned them into “second-class citizens.” You can cite all the statistics you want, but you cannot gainsay people’s lived experiences.

So how do you make newcomers belong before resentment sets in, or when it has already set in?

In November 2025, the Government piloted a new Permanent Resident Journey programme for selected PRs, with plans to extend it to all new permanent residents by the middle of this year. The programme consists of an e-learning module on Singapore’s culture, way of life and social norms, and an experiential component — museum visits, local community events, and so on. Whether belonging can truly be engineered through structured modules and curated outings however, is another question.

Before the Passport

Relying only on e-learning and community excursions after the fact may, while well-intentioned, be putting the cart before the horse. Rather than belatedly seeking to integrate those we have selected for permanent residency (PR) and citizenship, a better approach may be to prioritise for selection those who are already well integrated here.

The Immigration and Checkpoints Authority states that in considering PR applications, it “assess[es] the applicant’s ability to contribute to Singapore and integrate into our society, as well as his or her commitment to sinking roots.” The language used appears forward-looking. Perhaps it should look more at the present — how well has the applicant already integrated?

We must always let in the best and brightest. There’s still truth to the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats. But most PR and citizenship applicants won’t be Nobel laureates, Olympians or Unicorn founders. For the rest, we must make sure that their bonds, or willingness to build bonds, with Singaporeans are as strong as possible. This is where Singapore’s application process should include, even hinge on, an interview. At present, unlike many other countries such as the United States, Germany and Thailand, it often does not. Would a company hire an employee without an interview? Perhaps neither should we.

The interview would serve two purposes. The first: to assess whether the applicant — and that person’s family — has already meaningfully assimilated. Not just what they intend to do, but what they are already doing.

READ MORE: Impermanent Residency

The qualities that make someone feel rooted in Singapore are often qualitative rather than quantitative. It’s entirely possible to live here for years while remaining socially insulated within small expatriate enclaves, never making much attempt to get to know Singaporeans or local culture. Paper qualifications and economic contributions do not automatically result in vibrant social connections. On the other hand, those who live in the heartlands, eat hawker food, shop at wet markets and take the bus soon won’t seem like foreigners at all. Do their children attend local schools? Do they volunteer in the community? Do they see Singapore as transactionally beneficial, or as home?

The second thing the interview should assess is language proficiency — English in particular. That’s not being elitist, it’s being factual.

“We must make sure that their bonds, or willingness to build bonds, with Singaporeans are as strong as possible. This is where Singapore’s application process should include, even hinge on, an interview.”

(S)ingua Franca

English is Singapore’s lingua franca, the language of government, commerce and education. But more than that, it’s the means by which an ethnically diverse population can interact with and understand each other socially.

Fluency in the mother tongue of one of Singapore’s major ethnic groups would certainly be a plus. But the ability to speak and understand English well should be non-negotiable. And Singlish proficiency should be a bonus. Come on lah, it’s our cultural heritage after all.

Language alone will not make someone Singaporean. Neither will an interview, a museum visit or a citizenship certificate. But shared language, shared spaces and shared dreams create the conditions in which belonging can happen.

Just ask my daughter and her best friend V.